This 12 months’s iPhone 16 is likely to be a much less thrilling replace than we’ve been hoping for if the newest predictions by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo become correct.
In a Medium put up this morning, the well-known provide chain analyst has predicted that Apple will ship far fewer new iPhones this 12 months than it has in earlier years, with reviews that the corporate is reducing shipments of “key upstream semiconductor elements” by as a lot as 15% in comparison with final 12 months.
Because of this, Kuo says that shipments of each the present iPhone 15 and upcoming iPhone 16 fashions are anticipated to drop between 10 and 15% in the course of the first and second half of 2024, in comparison with the numbers for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 in the identical two halves of 2023.
Kuo locations a number of the blame for this on the toes of Apple’s failure to embrace generative AI performance, pointing to the truth that Samsung has elevated its shipments for its new Galaxy S24 lineup on account of demand for the brand new Galaxy AI capabilities launched on this 12 months’s flagships.
Benefiting from the higher-than-expected demand as a result of excessive integration of GenAI capabilities, Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 collection in 2024 by 5–10%, whereas Apple has revised down the cargo forecast of iPhone 15 in 1H24.
Ming-Chi Kuo
In the meantime, Apple has revised its iPhone 15 forecast downwards. In fact, correlation doesn’t equal causation, however Kuo predicts that Apple gained’t flip that round with the iPhone 16 this 12 months, claiming that rumored generative AI options gained’t arrive “till 2025 on the earliest.”
That flies within the face of a number of different reviews that recommend iOS 18 will convey vital enhancements to Siri and different options that Apple may exhibit as quickly as this 12 months’s Worldwide Builders Convention (WWDC) in June, to not point out Kuo’s personal December report that stated the iPhone 16 would achieve higher microphones “to enhance the Siri expertise considerably.” On the time, Kuo speculated, based mostly on different data he’d heard, that this “may point out that Apple expects to combine extra AI/AIGC capabilities into Siri as a key promoting level of the iPhone 16.”
Nevertheless, plainly no matter new tea leaves Kuo has been studying from Apple’s provide chain now lead him to consider these AI capabilities could also be farther off than we anticipated.
It’s anticipated that Apple won’t launch new iPhone fashions with vital design adjustments and the extra complete/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/purposes till 2025 on the earliest. Till then, it is going to possible hurt Apple’s iPhone cargo momentum and ecosystem development.
Ming-Chi Kuo
Kuo provides that Apple can be seeing a decline within the Chinese language market on account of “the return of Huawei and the growing desire for foldable telephones amongst high-end customers as their first selection for telephone alternative.”
Whereas the iPhone took the highest spot because the best-selling smartphone in China in 2023, the winds could also be blowing in a unique path, as 2024 has begun with iPhone shipments dropping 2% in China, lending credence to Kuo’s evaluation of the state of affairs.
Will the iPhone 16 Be a Boring Improve?
Though we’ve heard loads of rumors pointing to bigger screens and a brand new Seize Button on this 12 months’s iPhone 16 lineup, a few of these adjustments may solely land on the iPhone 16 Professional fashions. That appears a positive factor for the bigger screens; the Seize Button stays extra of a thriller.
The iPhone 16 Professional can be anticipated to realize the tetra prism 5X lens that got here to the iPhone 15 Professional Max final 12 months — which can be a part of the rationale it’s rising to a 6.3-inch kind issue. There are additionally reviews that the Extremely Vast digicam on each Professional fashions will transfer to a 48-megapixel (MP) sensor.
Then there are the persistent rumors of an iPhone 16 Extremely. Nevertheless, that might additionally merely be a brand new identify for the iPhone 16 Professional Max, which could make sense if Apple retains doing issues that set it other than its smaller sibling; for instance, some reviews recommend the bigger flagship iPhone will get a Tremendous Telephoto Digicam this 12 months.
Nevertheless, adjustments to the iPhone 16 could possibly be significantly extra pedestrian. Some early prototype renders point out the digicam place may return to the tandem structure used on the iPhone 12, maybe to allow Spatial Video Recording, however aside from the potential for the Seize Button and addition of the iPhone 15 Professional Motion button, we’re not anticipating a lot from the usual iPhone 16 lineup.
That’s to not say that these options gained’t be sufficient to encourage many people to make the leap. In the case of its base fashions, Apple doesn’t normally hit one out of the park 12 months yearly; the iPhone 15 was an unusually compelling improve for its cameras, the iPhone 14 was almost equivalent to the iPhone 13 that got here earlier than. Plus, the A18 Chips anticipated to reach this 12 months will undoubtedly create much more highly effective gaming experiences and will lay the groundwork for generative AI in future iOS updates, even when Kuo is true about these options not coming this 12 months — which, to be truthful, there’s no assure of.
In spite of everything, as well-connected as Ming-Chi Kuo is inside Apple’s Asian provide chain, he has zero perception into what goes on contained in the partitions of Apple Park. He can solely attempt to interpret Apple’s plans based mostly on the forms of elements the corporate sources from its suppliers. This usually results in correct predictions concerning digicam sensors, shows, and different related elements, however he naturally has a tough time determining what Apple is as much as on the software program aspect — and that’s an space that generative AI falls fairly solidly into.
So, as regular, take any and all rumors with a sizeable dose of salt, irrespective of who they arrive from. Even the most effective sources will be improper, and no person will know for positive what the iPhone 16 will appear to be till Apple takes the stage and reveals it to us in September.
[The information provided in this article has NOT been confirmed by Apple and may be speculation. Provided details may not be factual. Take all rumors, tech or otherwise, with a grain of salt.]