One of many basic issues with the Trump administration’s acknowledged ambitions of bringing manufacturing jobs again to the US is the sheer scale of the worldwide provide chain. Massive industries that construct complicated merchandise can’t pivot in a single day, and plenty of couldn’t start to tug this off inside the subsequent 4 years even when they needed to.
Maybe nowhere is that this extra evident than with Apple’s iPhone provide chain. Whereas President Trump has mentioned he “completely” believes it’s attainable for iPhones to be made within the US, there’s an unlimited gulf between what’s attainable and what’s lifelike.
A number of weeks in the past, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick infamously mentioned that the “military of tens of millions and tens of millions of individuals screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones, that type of factor goes to come back to America.” Such a notion is an enormous oversimplification of what goes into constructing an iPhone and even the labor market. Are People going to be lining as much as do the mundane work of “screwing in little, little screws” on an iPhone manufacturing line?
Even when that’s true, the scenario is much extra complicated. The Monetary Occasions took a deep dive into exactly what’s concerned in placing an iPhone collectively, and there are extra transferring items than most people notice.
Because the report notes, Motorola tried this as soon as. In 2013, it was decided to show that manufacturing within the US might be achieved cost-effectively. It commissioned the first-ever American smartphone plant in Fort Value, Texas, run by Flextronics, to start assembling the Moto X. The initiative lasted a 12 months earlier than it realized it wasn’t economically sustainable.
The 2013 Moto X was a a lot easier gadget than the 2024 iPhone 16. Because the Monetary Occasions defined, a contemporary iPhone consists of round 2,700 totally different elements, which come from 187 suppliers in 28 nations. China could also be the place most iPhones are finally assembled — round 85% — however the general provide chain is really part of the worldwide financial system.
That already features a few US suppliers. Though they collectively account for lower than 5 p.c of iPhone parts, the Ceramic Protect glass is manufactured by Corning in Kentucky. Different US-made parts embrace the Face ID sensors and a few of the chips, that are being produced by 24 factories in 12 US states, though many of those are utilized in different Apple merchandise, such because the iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac. For instance, TSMC lately started fabricating A16 chips at its Arizona plant, that are used within the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, and iPad, however it’s additionally nonetheless working manufacturing strains for these similar chips in Taiwan.
Most of the 187 suppliers utilized by Apple have a number of amenities spanning a number of nations, and solely 30 don’t have any presence in China. There’s a lot overlap, in actual fact, that China hosts 284 of the 759 manufacturing amenities that produce parts for Apple. Japan and the US are available in second and third, at 108 and 62, respectively, adopted by South Korea (54), Taiwan (48), after which Thailand and Vietnam, with 38 amenities every.
Regardless of India being one other main location for iPhone meeting, solely 14 of Apple’s suppliers have manufacturing amenities in that nation. Because of this most parts that go to India’s iPhone crops have to be imported from elsewhere. India’s authorities has beforehand tried strikes much like these of the Trump administration, utilizing import duties on elements to encourage Apple’s suppliers to open new crops in that nation. This hasn’t had a lot of an affect on Apple’s provide chain.
Geography and Talent
The scenario in China goes effectively past decrease labor prices. Whereas that’s nonetheless a bonus, it’s not the first consideration. Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner made that clear in 2017 when he mentioned that “China stopped being the low labor price nation a few years in the past,” noting that Apple does enterprise there right this moment “due to the talent, the amount of talent in a single location, and the kind of talent it’s.”
Motorola found this in 2013 when it discovered that not solely had been labor prices “considerably larger” within the US, however in some circumstances, the mandatory abilities had been fully unavailable. For instance, Motorola required “tens of 1000’s” of mechanical tooling engineers, based on then senior VP Mark Randall, who advised the Monetary Occasions that the US merely didn’t have sufficient engineers to satisfy Motorola’s wants.
The Monetary Occasions goes one step additional, including that not solely is it about “particular experience for particular person parts,” however the truth that it’s concentrated “in nearly a dozen nations in Asia” and anchored round “clusters of suppliers in China.”
It’s additionally laborious to fathom the size of iPhone manufacturing. “Apple ships greater than 230mn iPhones annually — the equal of manufacturing 438 each minute,” the article notes. That requires a scale of manufacturing that takes years to shift to a brand new area, and a part of the financial system of iPhone manufacturing relies on retaining suppliers shut collectively.
“If you put an ocean between the shopper, on this case, Apple, and the part provider, there’s a drawback,” Andy Tsay, professor of knowledge methods at Santa Clara College’s Leavey Enterprise Faculty, advised the Monetary Occasions. Shifting parts round rapidly turns into far more troublesome, leading to delays the place downstream amenities could discover themselves working at decrease than peak capability.
It’s additionally not nearly Apple constructing crops within the US. The iPhone maker could wield plenty of affect over its suppliers, however that doesn’t imply it’s sufficient to persuade them to arrange store in America. Many of those firms additionally provide parts for different smartphone makers, together with China’s Huawei and Xiaomi.
Shifting manufacturing to the US would due to this fact require years if not a long time of coordinated funding in automation, instruments, infrastructure and coaching. Incentivising international part producers to construct amenities within the US would even be a problem.
The Monetary Occasions
There are key iPhone parts that may solely come from one provider. For instance, all of Apple’s A-series and M-series chips are made by TSMC. Whereas that firm has made some inroads into the US, resembling the brand new plant in Arizona, it could nonetheless take years to construct a brand new chip fabrication line that might be capable to deal with the A18 and M4 chips that use a more recent 3nm course of, by which era these chips can be previous information. TSMC is already making ready 2nm fabrication strains in Arizona, however it’s unclear whether or not these might be prepared for the iPhone 18. Even when they’re, analysts have recommended this can result in larger iPhone prices.
An ‘Military’ of CNC Machines
Foxconn’s “iPhone metropolis” in Zhengzhou produces about half of the world’s iPhones and employs 350,000 employees throughout peak manufacturing seasons. Nevertheless, it’s not simply concerning the availability of inexpensive labor.
One thing as seemingly primary because the steel body that homes a contemporary iPhone depends on tools that’s not accessible on the crucial scale in the US. Keep in mind, we’re speaking about producing over 400 iPhones per minute. That requires an “military” of high-precision laptop numerical management (CNC) machines to chop and form the iPhone body, which Apple’s suppliers have been amassing for years.
“If Apple had been to onshore iPhone manufacturing, there wouldn’t be sufficient CNC machines they will buy to satisfy the size of the China ecosystem,” Wayne Lam, an analyst at TechInsights, advised the Monetary Occasions.
One factor Commerce Secretary Lutnick is true about is that there really are people screwing in little screws. Every iPhone has 74 tiny screws which are primarily made in China and India, they usually’re all fastened in place by hand. Nonetheless, the manufacturing of those screws is complicated, as they’re constructed from totally different supplies and even have totally different kinds of heads, from normal Philips to pentalobe.
Because of the method the iPhone is constructed, together with avoiding glue to connect the body, it’s cheaper for Foxconn to “rent folks to do the screwing than to spend money on robotic options.”
It’s unclear if Lutnick was implying that Apple would create comparable manufacturing jobs in a US plant, as he’s additionally recommended automation would create extra jobs for robotics engineers. That sounds extra cheap, besides that Apple and Foxconn must develop the know-how to automate these processes. That’s one other factor that isn’t going to occur in a single day.
China Isn’t Letting Go Simply
Lastly, even when Apple was 100% dedicated to shifting iPhone manufacturing to the US, it could face an uphill battle with Beijing, which has already resisted Apple’s makes an attempt to maneuver a few of its manufacturing to India.
Apple is a giant a part of China’s manufacturing financial system, and Beijing isn’t going to let it go with no combat. Apple can’t spin up iPhone manufacturing from scratch; it wants its Chinese language suppliers, resembling Foxconn, to maneuver expertise and tools to different nations, and the Chinese language authorities has been making that course of as troublesome because it presumably can, slowing down visa functions for engineers and technicians who want to put in and repair the equipment, and dragging its ft on export approvals to ship manufacturing tools in another country.
If Chinese language officers are already stonewalling Apple on transferring to India, they’re more likely to be much more intransigent on tools and suppliers transferring to the US — a rustic that’s a a lot larger rival even when there isn’t a heated commerce battle occurring.
Apple has lengthy aimed to diversify its provide chain, so transferring some manufacturing to India and different nations can be inevitable even with out the present tariff uncertainty. Nevertheless, relating to shifting manufacturing to the US, it makes far more sense for Apple to sit down again and wait, because the time it could take to make it occur on the size that President Trump needs is sort of positive to survive his administration.