Apple’s 2024 iPhone shipments will considerably decline in comparison with 2023, says iPhone business analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, due partially to decrease iPhone demand in China.
Apple is going through falling demand for its iPhone in China, as experiences inform of native smartphone producers, similar to Huawei, overtaking the iPhone within the Chinese language market. These falling gross sales will have an effect on Apple’s general shipments of the system throughout 2024.
After popping out on prime in China in 2023, Apple’s place has plunged to fourth place within the first six weeks of 2024, based on a Counterpoint Analysis report.
China’s top-selling smartphone producer for the primary six weeks of 2024 was Vivo, with an 18% market share. Second place was Huawei, then got here Honor in third place with a 16% share of the market.
In a Medium put up, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo cited a provide chain survey exhibiting that Apple decreased its orders for key semiconductor parts that will probably be used to fabricate the iPhone 15 lineup, in addition to the upcoming iPhone 16 lineup.
Kuo predicts the delivery decline might be between 10% and 15% per half-year of 2024. If his prediction proves true, complete cargo numbers might are available at round 200 million items, a 15% year-over-year fall.
Kuo factors to a shift towards high-end smartphones with generative AI components and foldable designs as one large motive for the 2024 decline. He additionally factors to Huawei’s return to the Chinese language smartphone market as a motive for the discount in iPhone shipments.
Samsung has elevated its Galaxy S24 shipments by between 5% and 10%, due to a higher-than-expected demand for the smartphone and its generative AI performance.
In the meantime, Apple’s weekly iPhone shipments in China have plunged by 30% to 40% throughout the previous few weeks, and Kuo expects that development to proceed.
Kuo estimates that Apple received’t be taking a extra AI-forward method or revamping the iPhone’s design till no less than 2025. Apple has been rumored to be working in direction of releasing a foldable iPhone in that very same yr.
Apple executives warned throughout Apple’s fiscal Q1 2024 monetary outcomes convention name that the corporate’s second-quarter outcomes might be decrease than anticipated.
Whereas Kuo sees iPhone shipments to China falling, Wedbush analysts advised traders that it was sustaining its value goal for the iPhone maker. That is regardless of a number of issues confronted by the Cupertino firm, together with the problems it’s going through within the Chinese language smartphone market and its cancellation of the Apple Automobile undertaking. Wedbush sees pent-up demand for the upcoming iPhone 16 lineup as serving to to override any issues.
Wedbush says the cancellation of the Apple Automobile was unhealthy information since Apple spent ten years on a “lengthy unhealthy guess.” Nevertheless, on the brilliant facet, the agency says the cancellation will enable Apple to redeploy employees to its synthetic intelligence plans, which might enhance issues.
Beforehand, Wedbush had predicted we’d see 220 million to 230 million iPhone gross sales throughout 2024. Nevertheless, now it expects the demand from upgraders for the iPhone 16 to extend the anticipated 2024 gross sales complete as much as 270 million iPhones.