It appears that evidently every time Apple’s long-anticipated AR/VR mixed-reality headset seems to get nearer to actuality, we hear about new roadblocks. The product’s growth continuously seems to be as if it’s taking one step ahead after which two steps again.
Whereas there’s been a whole lot of buzz currently about the potential for the headset making its debut on June 5 at this yr’s Worldwide Builders Convention (WWDC), a brand new report by respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is casting some doubt on whether or not that can occur in any case.
As common, Kuo doesn’t have any perception into the pondering inside Apple’s government ranks and even its design groups, however what he does know is Apple’s provide chain, and people people have advised him that the mass manufacturing schedule for meeting of the brand new headset has been pushed again “by one other 1-2 months,” inserting it in “mid-to-late 3Q23.
That’s not essentially a big delay, and it strains up with different studies that advised that the headset wouldn’t ship till nearer to the top of 2023 anyway — or probably even into early 2024. Technically talking, the “3Q23” Kuo is talking of would run from July to September, so even when the headset started mass manufacturing on the finish of that quarter, there would nonetheless be ample time for it to hit the cabinets in time for Christmas. Not that it’s going to be a lot of a stocking stuffer with an anticipated $3,000 price ticket.
Nonetheless, in a tweet earlier today, Kuo additionally indicated that Apple isn’t optimistic that the headset announcement will recreate the improbable type of “iPhone second” that some predict. In consequence, it might determine to skip its look at WWDC, saving it for one more occasion later within the yr, maybe when situations are extra favorable.
The principle issues for Apple not being very optimistic concerning the market suggestions to the AR/MR headset announcement embrace the financial downturn, compromises on some {hardware} specs for mass manufacturing (similar to weight), the readiness of the ecosystem and purposes, a excessive promoting worth (USD 3,000-4,000 and even increased), and so on.
Ming-Chi Kuo
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem that Apple’s executives are below any illusions about how the headset can be obtained. A report earlier this week revealed skepticism inside Apple’s ranks about whether or not the brand new headset is “an answer searching for an issue.” Apple expects it can face an uphill battle in attempting to persuade potential clients of the worth of the brand new expertise. Nevertheless, it has to begin someplace and hopes the first-generation product will pave the best way for extra improvements that can come down the street.
Will Apple’s Headset Debut at WWDC?
There’s loads of precedent for Apple saying merchandise months earlier than they ship — particularly these in solely new classes. The unique iPhone was launched six months after Steve Jobs confirmed it off on stage at Macworld 2007, and the Apple Watch was introduced within the fall of 2014, almost 9 months earlier than it went on sale in April 2015. Nonetheless, it’s truthful to say that unveiling a headset with a $3,000+ price ticket in the midst of an financial downturn is perhaps perceived as considerably “tone-deaf” on Apple’s half.
Kuo additionally notes that Apple has already made some compromises on issues like weight to get the headset into mass manufacturing extra shortly, and it’s additionally unclear whether or not it can have a big sufficient ecosystem of apps for the machine. It’s not in Apple’s tradition to current {hardware} for its personal sake — there needs to be a imaginative and prescient to go together with it, and paradoxically that’s very true for one thing like an AR/VR headset.
Nevertheless, that’s additionally basically what WWDC is about — ramping up enthusiasm among the many developer neighborhood for Apple’s platforms. There’s possible no higher place to unveil its new “realityOS” frameworks. Nonetheless, will probably be tough for builders to understand these ideas until there’s a bodily machine they’ll wrap their heads round (or wrap round their heads, on this case). Primarily based on previous product releases, it’s additionally extremely possible Apple has already been working with a choose group of companions below strict non-disclosure agreements to construct the primary spherical of apps to showcase the brand new headset.
Since Kuo is an analyst and particularly writes for buyers, his newest notice is about revising the forecast on what number of headsets Apple is predicted to ship. Initially, he stated the market consensus was about 500,000 models, however the delays in mass manufacturing have dropped that estimate to round 200,000 to 300,000 models.
That also looks like a reasonably optimistic estimate for a tool costing $3,000 at launch and should not have many helpful purposes. Nonetheless, Apple additionally has 30 million builders worldwide, lots of which is able to choose one or two up for growth functions, plus enterprise, training, and different company clients who could discover sensible makes use of for the mixed-reality expertise, relying on what Apple’s builders do with it.
[The information provided in this article has NOT been confirmed by Apple and may be speculation. Provided details may not be factual. Take all rumors, tech or otherwise, with a grain of salt.]